Now that we have been several months in this new ruleset, let’s see if things are shaping up the way I and others predicted! Things are about to shake up in a very big was whenever we get those 15-18 new warbands, 2 new decks, a new board with new token/hex types, and potentially a new rulebook. As such, this is probably pretty close to the ‘end of this meta’ and it’s time to take a look back at how it went, what I got right, and where I guessed way wrong!

For some context, here’s a link to my ‘End of Gitz meta/Dromm retrospective’ article from the last meta review, and this is a link to my preditctions after the FaR/Balance Update Winners and Losers once the last rules update dropped.

As a recap of the predictions, I thought:

• Grymwatch would be pretty good, maybe even better than before
• Gitz would still likely be ‘too strong’ though probably not the #1 thing anymore
• PP/CC would still be too strong and the nerfs did not hit them enough to offset the harm FaR did to everything else
• Elite aggro (especially BA/CtC) would be dethroned to an extent
• Take and Hold would suffer significantly with the new token placement
• Hexbane and Crimson Court would potentially be more present with their new warscroll changes,
• Wrack and Ruin moving up the ladder just a touch since it didn’t have a Restricted Card

Let’s check out things in the Underworlds Statistics Project to see what happened since the rules update and whether my crystal ball was anywhere close to correct.

Warband Winrates

Here were the win percentages at the end of the last meta (RF/Dromm nerfs in place, FaR not active yet, Gitz at full strength)

What a wild time. Games Workshop says in their (incredibly spare and rare when considering Underworlds) metawatch articles that they’d prefer everything have between a 45-55% win rate. We saw 4 warbands above this line: Gitz, Thricefold, Grymwatch, and Dread Pageant. There were also a good many below 45%, unfortunately. So how does the new meta look? There’s a bunch of warbands now, so let’s do top half and bottom half:

Top half here is anybody with a win rate of 50% or more. We see a remarkably high win rate for Grinkrak’s Looncourt, though with only 17 recorded games it could certainly be an outlier – one or two skilled players driving the numbers up with a small sample size. The last rules changes didn’t do much to make them different in a significant way, so we can probably look past that sky-high 82.4%. Da Kunnin Krew is also a bit of a surprise, though their warscroll did get improved. Another smaller sample size that’s hard to draw major conclusions from.

The biggest takeaways from the top half warbands list that I can see are:

• Ephilim’s Pandaemonium has taken quite a big jump – this is in part due to their favorite prey (horde warbands, particularly gitz) being taken down a peg, as well as several top players intentionally working with them to counter the gitz meta as evidence by the WTC in Europe this year
• Ylthari’s Guardians bursting onto the scene, which makes sense given their pretty strong overall effect, ability to pair with anything, and a reduced prevalence of the ‘elite aggro’ that might outpunch them
• Grymwatch and Dread Pageant effectively unmoved by the changes
• Thricefold Discord seeing an 8% drop in win rate as their favorite pairing in BA/CC and their warscroll both took a hit
• Mollog taking a big step up (I blame Andrew)
• Kamandora’s Blades debut with a stronger presence than anticipated

Now looking at the bottom half (those with <50% win rates):

• Big dropoff for Grandfather’s Gardeners, falling 7.8%. This may be due in part to their best matchup (high damage aggro) being less prevalent, and the restricted list hurting ES/PP and ES/CC pretty dramatically.
• Cyreni’s razors fell 6.9%, and went from a top 5 warband to bottom half
• Notably Farstriders, Kainan’s Reapers, and Skinnerkin didn’t play enough games to even qualify for the assessment. Kainan was sitting pretty with a 53.1% win rate last cycle and Farstriders at 52%, but their popularity has waned.
• Jaws continue to sit in the bottom half despite a powerful warscroll, probably because of the hit to BA/CC

With warbands sorted, it’s time to peek at decks.

Deck Winrates

We will play the same game with the Underworlds Statistics Project data, this time looking at decks and focusing on the effect the FaR and balance changes had on what pairings did best. Last time, right before the FaR, here was the Nemesis deck landscape:

With our 45-55% goal, only one thing was ‘too strong’, namely PP/CC. Much of the FaR and balance update seemed to target this pairing as it was what the community felt was needed, though the FaR had some more complications. I put together this post about which restricted cards I felt were best to take, with the quick assessment that this new FaR would help Reckless Fury and Wrack & Ruin’s standings, and probably hurt Edge of the Knife and Emberstone Sentinels too much.

Especially considering that 8 combinations were below the desired 45% win cutoff, we had a lot of work to do. 4 of those were Blazing Assault pairings, and now they wouldn’t even be able to take Illusory Fighter if they also wanted another ‘good card’ – it was hard to guess how exactly that would hurt the deck. So, with months of games behind us, how did it shake out?

Some takeaways:

• PP/CC remains the top dog, even more so than before – going from 57.4% to 66.7%. This is NOT due to sample size, as there were 156 games with this pairing in the current meta between May 29th and September 20th.
• ES/RR is a stupid pairing but actually has some legs as I discussed in my post earlier this week, and this is boosted by G’s strong performance at NOVA. I don’t think it’s really as good as 64.3% though.
• BA/CC, the ‘elite aggro’ cornerstone, took a hit with the FaR and the change to Wreckers/the plot tracker. As a result, win rates dropped precipitously from 54.5% (just barely within goal) to a sad 41.6% – well below goal. BA/RF also dropped 4%. Blazing/Wrack is doing better though!
• Realmstone Raiders has surprisingly high win rates considering how poorly received the deck was

There were a handful of pairings that had less than 10 games reported and thus are less reliable:

ES/Edge was a 55.8%, RF/RS sits at 60%, BA/RR has 80%, and everything else in this “less than 10 games recorded” snapshot was 50% or below.

Podium Placements

Now we will turn to the recorded tournaments in the Underworlds Statistics Project data. This does not include all tournaments by any means, and is missing some large events/grand clashes and even world qualifiers. Despite this, it provides a picture into what’s gone on since the FaR list was released.

I have highlighted out top 3 performing warbands here: Zarbag’s Gitz, Grymwatch, and Emberwatch. Those three warbands have performed quite well and have continued to perform quite well despite PP/CC supposedly being nerfed to hurt the hordes (which does not seem to have happened), and Emberwatch who saw no real change and this their performance has continued to look decent.

Put another way though, regardless of podium placing, here’s the data for Tournaments with 10+ games played for a warband:

In this tournament only data, there are a few major takeaways I see:

• Grymwatch are winning 61% with over 100 games played. This is hugely strong!
• Gitz have fallen to 54%, which is still pretty powerful but a good drop from their last cycle. Ephilim is winning at a high rate likely because it’s being taken specifically to fight Gitz, who are present at tournaments in large numbers.
• Despite being 3rd in podium placements, Emberwatch are only looking at a 50.9% win rate – this could be because it has a higher skill threshold to use properly and/or lots of newer players taking it straight out of the core box without being as experienced.
• Da Kunnin Krew sits at 81.3%, but this is a very small sample size and bolstered by their running the table at NOVA
• Ylthari is doing remarkably well these days, winning 2/3 of the time in tournaments.

Evaluating the Predictions

Unfortunately, submitted games to the Underworlds Statistics Project are down this cycle, and so we have less data to go on. Despite that, I want to assess what I can (and encourage you to submit your games! This data is useful!). I had thought the following headed into the meta:

• Grymwatch would be pretty good, maybe even better than before
  • Win rate went from 60.2% down to 59.3%, which is effectively identical, but their podium placements are quite strong and their tournament win rate is also 60%
  • Verdict: correct

• Gitz would still likely be ‘too strong’ though probably not the #1 thing anymore
  • Win rate went from 65.4% to 54.3, which amazingly is within the 45-55% goal. Their tournament win rate is 54.1%, but they are also quite prevalent in podium placements still.
  • Verdict: correct

• PP/CC would still be too strong and the nerfs did not hit them enough to offset the harm FaR did to everything else
  • PP/CC went from an ‘oppressive’ 57.4%, and remarkably jumped to 66.7% win rate. And that’s across 156 games!
  • Unfortunately it looks as though PP/CC is even more dominant in this current setting. It’s ‘only’ winning 60.8% of games in tournament play across 102 games recorded.
  • Verdict: correct

• Elite aggro BA/CtC would be dethroned to an extent
  • BA/CC fell nearly 13 points from 54.5% to 41.6%, and BA/RF also fell 4%.
  • Verdict: correct

• Take and Hold would suffer significantly with the new token placement
  • ES/CC fell 2.5%, ES/Wrack fell only 0.4%, and ES/PP actually rose 5.9% and broke the 50% mark.
  • ES/RR debuted with a strong 60% and ES/RS, which probably anomalous, is also doing quite well
  • Verdict: Incorrect

• Hexbane and Crimson Court would potentially be more present with their new warscroll changes
  • Hexbane broke his way to 50%! Huge increase from last time. Crimson Court weren’t even on the radar last meta, but sadly are bottom-tier right now with 19%. At least they’re getting played!
  • Verdict: Well no, but also yes

• Wrack and Ruin moving up the ladder just a touch since it didn’t have a Restricted Card
  • CC/WR, ES/WR, and PP/WR had their win rates effectively unchanged. BA/WR, however, jumped an ENORMOUS 14%, going from 40.2 to 54.2%. Edge/WR fell 8.1 points to a sad 29.4% win rate.
    • Edge/WR’s decline probably has more to do with Edge than WnR
  • Overall, the meta presence is probably about the same, save for the aggro BA/WR being much stronger (likely because BA/CC fell so hard)
  • Verdict: Jury deliberating

Wrap

Looks like I got stuff mostly right. On one hand, that feels nice, but on the other, I’m a little sad about it. Grymwatch remain too strong, Gitz are in a better place but still probably too strong, and aggro suffered more than the actual boogeymen. I am pleasantly surprised to see Emberstone Sentinels being hurt a lot less than I expected, so very glad to be wrong there!

It’s hard to make a reasonable ask about ‘what’s needed’ for the next balance update based on what we see here, since the Spitewood releases will change things pretty dramatically is my guess. No way to tell what the new decks will allow to flourish, or what the new board types might help or hinder.

There are a few warscrolls that probably still are straight up too bad or too good, such as:

• Grymwatch need a nerf, the Underdog changes did not slow them down at all
• Gitz could potentially need another nerf, though for all we know their rules will be updated in their Spitewood re-release
• Headsmen’s Curse continue to be WAY down the list – which we can only hope will be helped by one or both new decks
• Knives of the Crone are doing surprisingly poorly and I don’t know how to fix them
• Thorns of the Briar Queen are not doing well despite a horde-friendly meta, and we have to hope their Spitewood re-release does something to boost them up

With all the above in consideration, I would give the last balance update a final grade of C+

If we look exclusively at ‘the problem’ from last time – Gitz PP/CC being too strong – the Gitz part of the equation has been addressed mostly effectively. Their win rates are still very good but ‘within goal’, just barely below 55%. They do however crop up VERY often in podium placements. The PP/CC side of the equation was not fixed, and actually got stronger than last round. The CC nerf looks to have hurt aggro much more than the horde pillage style, and this round probably needs something to hit Pillage and Plunder pretty hard. I would recommend considering making Strip the Realm a Forsaken card.

What do you think? Have changes to Gitz and PP/CC helped the game’s balance? Was the FaR successful at making the game more fair? Let me know your thoughts by commenting wherever you found this or by emailing SpentGlory@gmail.com and until next time, don’t forget to spend that glory in Embergard before things get entirely upended in Spitewood!